Hi Folks,
I currently own a nice upright and would love to upgrade to a grand. One way this would be more feasable is if I bought a piano that would likely to increase in value in the next 20 years. My first choice apart from investment value is the Baldwin L, but my teacher has a nice rebuilt Steinway B that I like very much. So I was thinking that getting a good B might be wiser long-term because it is more likely to appreciate in value. Is this true? All replies are welcome, but objective input would be more helpful as opposed to some of the over-the-top Steinway advocacy we've seen around here lately. thanks in advance!... Larry

No. Pianos are'nt financial investments that appreciate. They are more of an invesment in the pleasure of music that they allow you to experience for a life time.

Deja Vu, I'm personally not going down this road again You're asking for trouble! You're welcome to call me and I'll tell you what every Steinway model sold for in 1910,1920,1930,1940 all the way to the present and the analysis on fair market value, new,preowned, all original unrestored and with full restoration with or w/o new soundboard
Plenty of recent previous threads exactlty on point.

Many pianos will depreciate more slowly than inflation, so their dollar value will go up over time. That especially happens with used pianos, which have gone through initial depreciation. Your Hamilton may have done so. However, at some point, pianos wear out.

If you want to invest in Steinway, they are publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol LVB.

Steinways keep up with inflation.
Some argue the point.

Why anybody would consider buying a Steinway as an investment is beyond me. Oh and I do have a friend selling her 18 month old ebony satin Steinway L that she paid over 50K for. Anybody want to give her 55K? I think not. She'll be lucky if she gets 40K. How's that for an investment.

Rich

I think you're more likely to limit depreciation than to see any appreciation.

Don't dismiss Baldwin, especially since you like your 243. Baldwins are underappreciated now because of all the company has been through in the past 25 years. Nice Baldwin grands are selling at considerably less than their musical and build quality should net them. If you find the right one, and Gibson does a decent job of representing Baldwin, you could be looking at a piano that will hold its value without you committing a large amount of your resources to purchase it.

Rich D-

I bought my Steinway to play. I bought it used and feel confident that I could sell it for more than I bought it for.

You fantastically smart.

Larry,

The fact is that ALL pianos bought new depreciate in price. I'm talking straight dollars here. Forget inflation and all that. So if you bought a new piano today, it will be impossible to sell at the original price or even near it for awhile. Same with a car, it depreciates after you take it from the lot.

However, pianos in general will stay at this depreciated price indefinitely and not depreciate much further. Some pianos, like Steinway, will increase from that price so that over a long period of time, say 30 years, it will be worth more than you paid for in original dollars.

This a little of supply and demand here. Inasmuch as there's not that many new Steinways produced, and a lot of demand, the price of used pianos go up with the price of new. For this reason, prices of used pianos are tied to the price of new ones.

This in itself does not constitute a 'good' investment, but it is certainly pleasing to know that at least you're not losing an arm and a leg like when you're buying a car from constant depreciation.

Where you have a chance of achieving this better gain on price, IMHO, is in buying an excellent used Steinway, particularly if you buy a used one from a private party since that initial depreciation is no longer an issue.

Get a good deal on a used Steinway that you love, maintain it well, and it will likely hold it's value over time.

If not, then congratulations! You're still playing the finest piano ever made. (imo)

--------------------
1922 Hamburg Steinway OR

I know of a person who is disposing of a Doctor's collection of 25 Steinway pianos- many currently being restored. I asked if the Doctor was a collector and his answer was that the Doc's original intention was investment. It did not turn out that way after all. Now he realizes that the concept of expecting returns on Steinways is unproven. The owner has had these pianos for a long time.

First of all, I'm a music guy not a money guy. So I'm not asking the question because I want to make money by buying the right piano. It rather that when I'm done playing, hopefully 20-30 years from now, it would make sense to leave my family a piano that has held it's value, or maybe even appreciated in value. I love piano so much I wouldn't mind living in a cheesy mobile home if I had to, as long as I could have a nice grand piano. However, I'm married to a very practical woman. So if I can demonstrate that a particular piano might go up in value in the next 30 years, I may actually be able to get one. I'm trying to find a way to be able to justify spending $20 on a piano. Larry

Hi Jazzwee,

I think you are taking a very sensible position. A perfect example would be Rich D's example of an 18 month old Steinway bought at 55k and probably going to sell at 40k or less. One person's loss is another person's opportunity, so while a Steinway of this sort might be hard to find, it does seem like an opportunity for the second owner.

How do you feel about depreciation on a fresh rebuild from a professional rebuilder? I know from what you've told me that you are extremely satisfied with your piano and the state of the rebuild, and that it will almost certainly satisfy you for a good long time. But don't you think a buyer of a fresh rebuild would experience sharp depreciation in the first few years.

Let's say for example that you needed to sell your Hamburg in three years for whatever reason. As a private seller, you would be selling a ninety-year-old piano which had been rebuilt three years before. You would not have a showroom of expertly rebuilt pianos behind you, or be able to defend the quality of the rebuild as the actual rebuilder. You might have some value in your immediate geographical area if pianobroker's business is going strong and he is well-known. But that is an 'if'. You would certainly be confronted with prospective buyers who would focus on the fact that the piano is 90 years old while you focus on the fact that,in your opinion, it is close to new. Also, would your warranty be in force in three years and transferable to another owner?

It seems to me that buying a fresh rebuild could be subject to the same kind of initial depreciation hit as a new piano. What do you think?

I know you hope for this, Turandot.

Larry, I couldn't resist, Any piano 30+ years later after lets say you wore it out to the point of needing complete restoration, has no value as a rebuildable "core piano " with the exception of a Steinway grand (ok,some M&H)You can sell a Steinway grand totally unrestored,rusted strings,finish peeling,missing parts,cracked bridges damaged or NO soundboard for" big money" in relation to what a new Steinway sells for. Lets say, 30 years from now 2037,a new Steinway "B" sells for 120K conservatively priced, how much would you speculate that a Steinway "B" would be valued in need of restoration "as is" I'd say it would be more than what you payed for the piano at present plus you played it for 30+ years. If you bought preowned or rebuilt you would really be at an advantage down the road Fair market value is always based on the replacement value less depreciation + restoration considerations etc
I hear the the rumbling of dispute already

Larry,

It would depend to whom you feel the need to justify the $20,000.

If you can afford $20K then simply spend it. It seems a very moderate sum.

Just think how much extra pleasure and harmony it will give the household.

It's a no-brainer in my view.

Alan

I think it's likely that a real "money guy" would advise you not to confuse or try to combine money and music in the way that you wish to. This combination does not work easily for most people. It takes lots of experience and there are lots of risk factors. Ask anyone in the piano-selling business.

Better to meet your musical needs in the best way possible given your financial resources. PW offers lots of good advice about piano quality. Follow it. Buy an affordable high quality piano and you will have your musical needs satisfied for a lifetime.

With the money you have not spent on a piano, invest according to your ability to tolerate financial risk and your need for capital accumulation. This is the most straightforward way for you to take care of both your finances and your musical wishes.

Jazzwee has an extra advantage in that he has a Hamburg Steinway. A unrestored Hamburg Steinway has even more value than a New York Steinway in that they sell for 25% more than the latter

Karenabcde,

What I hope for and am confident I will receive is a thoughtul answer from jazzwee. I asked him the question. I know and respect him from a lot of email communication. The question was about Steinway and rebuilds. I said nothing disrespectful about either. I made mention of pianobroker and his impressive inventory of expertly-executed rebuilds. I am one who follows pianobroker's posts with interest, respects his opinions, and has learned quite a bit from reading his stuff.

I asked nothing of you and would appreciate having nothing back from you regarding my question. Stop being obnoxious.

Turandot:

I was only stating what appeared to be the case.
I have nothing but ongoing and deep respect for you.

NEW FLASH!
EXTRA EXTRA!
READ ALL ABOUT IT!

Realizing they were selling off valuable appreciating investments all Steinway dealers shut their doors today.

They realized they can make more money *keeping* the pianos and waiting.

No new Steinways will ever be available again.

Karenabcde wrote the following to Turandot—

"Turandot:[/b]

I was only stating what appeared to be the case.[/b]
I have nothing but ongoing and deep respect for you." [/b]

Tut tut... such sarcasm is unbecoming... :rolleyes:

From the Steinway website , in case you haven't seen it.

Here's another good article from Worth magazine .

In some cases, it appears than Steinways don't just keep up with inflation, they cause it.

(retreating to bomb shelter...)

From my perspective, the chart shows that Steinway increase in dollar value has not nearly kept up with inflation, much less represented some sort of longterm investment value.

Of course, laypersons will disagree on how to calculate inflation in a useful way. Let me suggest this: in 1900 an ordinary wage for a blue-collar worker making a living supporting a family might have been $1 a day or 10 cents an hour (long working days). $10 a day would have been very good money indeed then. There were lots of blue-collar workers in the U.S. in those days. Five cents would buy a beer and they'd throw in a sandwich. Today, in better-off states in the U.S. the median family income is $60K a year, which is about $250 a day. In this measure, price multiplication generally during the 20th century was about 250 times or 25,000%.

I pulled a 1920s 52 inch upright piano out of a barn in the 1970s so I could restring it, install new hammers and learn about pianos. It was a beautifully built piano and still had its original price tag inside: $300. Today such a piano would cost somewhere between $10K and $20K, let's say $15K. This represents a price multiplication of 50 times or 5,000%.

The Steinway average increase in value was 4.3 times or 430%.

Maybe a relatively good "investment" as a piano, but not as an investment investment.

Better to make a few good investment investments and enjoy several nice pianos during your lifetime. Use the income from your investment investments to buy your pianos; don't confuse your piano with an investment.

Actually... according to this inflation calculator , here are the inflation factors for each year (the amount you'd have to multiply the original price to adjust for inflation up until 1988)

1959 3.94
1978 2.56
AVERAGE 1959-1978 = 3.25[/b]

1920 6.60
1958 4.04
AVERAGE 1920-1958 = 5.34[/b]

1900 13.65[/b]



The only category on the graph that hasn't quite kept up with inflation is the 1959-1978 group.

The vintage Steinways, on the other hand, appear to have kept up with inflation quite nicely.

Mike-

If you use a financial calculator for this, starting in the year 1925 to 2007, that is 82 years. Using a starting value of $300 and a final value of $15,000, the annual appreciation rate is 4.78%. True, $15,000 is 50 times the starting value of $300...but this does not mean the inflation rate is 5000%.

My post above was referring to Mike's Barn Piano Example, not the immediate chart above.

Right. You have to take the compounding value into account.

4.78% annual appreciation is definitely higher than inflation.

Not a great "investment" per se, but it did hold its value-- and then some.

Karen--

I specifically was not talking about an annual inflation rate but using inflation as a way of talking about current price vs historical price. Current price vs historical price was the method that Mantix's chart used, and I was trying to be comparable to his chart. I should not have used "inflation" in this potentially confusing way, and I will edit my earlier post. Thanks for pointing this out.

We don't really know what the inflation (or price multipliers) in the "calculator" refer to. I tried to be more concrete in my example, but I suspect that people seriously interested in making good financial investments would just shake their heads at these sorts of comparisons. We are a long way from talking usefully about selecting financial investments.

Right. I came up with my numbers by using "$1" as a starting price in year X, to see what it would cost in year 1988 with inflation according to the inflation calculator (which based on the Consumer Price Index).

That is a comparable measure to the chart.

Try it yourself:

With inflation,
$1 in 1959 would be $3.94 in 1988
$1 in 1978 would be $2.56 in 1988
$1 in 1920 would be $6.60 in 1988
$1 in 1958 would be $4.04 in 1988
$1 in 1900 would be $13.65 in 1988

To continue to beat this long-dead horse:

When you talk about investments, that is, financial investments, you would do well to compare them to other financial investments. Apples to apples, not apples to oranges, that sort of thing.

Comparing Steinway price changes to inflation is not a useful way to compare "investments," I don't think. Compare the value
"increase" in Steinway, for example, with that of some compounding interest financial vehicle or an equity fund.

Keeping slightly ahead of inflation (whatever that may be) is far from a good indicator of financial performance.

Just because Steinways and CDS do not provide the level of return as SOME hedgefunds, does not mean these are not investments.

I work with investments and investors every day. People's risk tolerances are very individual. A low-risk investment may not appeal to everyone, but it appeals to many people..and lower risk investments are part of many people's balanced portfolios....and in the case of the piano, it has the added benefit of providing fun, and is a shady place for dogs to sleep under.

I suppose there are two ways to look at this assuming the above data is accurate:

1. Historically the market has returned 10-11% in the long term. Steinway does not hold up well against this metric.

2. Comparing the investment value of a Steinway long term vs. another piano may derive a completely different answer.

I'm only trying to establish whether vintage Steinways hold their value over time-- whether they keep up with inflation.

If these sources are correct, the answer seems to clearly be "yes".

Fatherto pianist-
The market is but one investment category.
CDS, bonds, money markets, real property (as you know) are all places people can place their money. These are all investments. "The market" is not the only place to invest money!

Some people would never consider putting their money inequities. I am not among those, but there are many people that don't want to invest in equities.....For them, a piano may be comparable to a long-term bond class.

I guess you would also have to take into consideration the cost to the owner of rebuilding or whatever if the piano was 100 years old, wouldn't you? What is the cost of restoring a Steinway? Is it more than other pianos?

"The purchases of stocks, bonds, options, commodity contracts, and even antiques, stamps, and real estate are all considered to be investments if the individual's intent is to transfer purchasing power to the future."
--from page 5 of INVESTMENTS by Herbert B. Mayo, 7th Edition, published by Thomson, copyright 2003

Guess he forgot pianos

I am always a bit confused about value of Steinway in a long run. Most 100+ years old Steinway being sold as is, before any restoration, rebuild, in decent condition is probably being sold for a few thousands dollars. May be $5,000 if you are really lucky. I assume that 100+ year ago, the piano probably cost a couple of thousand dollars (I have absolutely no idea, just a guess here, may be someone can tell me how much those pianos really cost back then). So in term of actual dollar amount, you don't lose any money, you may actually gain a few dollars but in term of the worth of the piano, you are losing a lot. For me, that does not seem like an investment. If I buy something and keep it for 100 year for my great grand children, I expect the value not to just hold up to the original dollar amount but also to increase significantly.

I think we've shown that the relative value stays roughly constant over time when you adjust for inflation.

It does not increase substantially the way a bond or mutual fund might. Nor does it decrease substantially the way a car or boat might.

In other words, you can buy a vintage Steinway now, play it for 20 years, sell it, and the only thing it will have cost you is the price of tunings/repairs. The money you get from the sale will have the same purchasing power as the money you originally put in.

Of course, that's assuming past performance is a reliable predictor of future returns.. which is not always true.

Here's an idea -my dealer told me Steinway will not be able to make mahogany finish pianos as mahogany is going to be placed on the endangered species list. (I don't know whose list-the US list or the Brazilian list-you have to ask Steinway about this)

Anyway, he said Steinway has a stock of 3 years of mahogany remaining. After that, who knows. So he thinks mahagony pianos are a good thing to purchase as mahagony will be difficult or impossible to get.

I have no opinion; I am a message vessel.

I'm sure that virtually any time in history, an investment in an index mutual fund (e.g., S&P 500) would beat the appreciation of any piano (aside from the antique value of piano that has managed to stay in pristine condition.) Of course, with the ups and downs in the stock market, there could be a certian period of time that this would not be true (but then again, just putting the cash into a government bond would still have been better.)

This is such an unreal discussion, and it comes back over and over again. Even the truly deceptive (and darn near dishonest) chart Steinway includes in their website merely traces out the national inflation rate over time (though not for the early ones). But that 'researched' chart is probably about as accurate and unbiased as the "German quality" descriptions on many pianos coming out of China today.

I'm instantly suspicious of any aggregation that lumps together decades of unlike things. And it may reflect resale prices on showroom floors rather than what a dealer would offer an owner for their 1927 model S. There was a wonderful book many years ago titled "How to Lie with Statistics." Charts like that bring a smile to my face as I remember all the tricks interested parties can use to make statistics tell whatever story needs to be told.

As others have noted, something bought in 1900 for $100 would cost over $2,300 today merely adjusting for the effects of inflation. Pianos remain fairly labor intensive, so their new price likely has risen more than inflation, i.e. the real price of a new piano may have gone up, but from everything I have seen the real price of used pianos goes down substantially as time passes, reflecting the depreciation of the equipment.

If I constructed a chart like that one for my 1971 Howard/Kawai it would look the same. That beast today is probably worth at least three times (in nominal dollars) what my family paid for it? Good investment? Its real price has fallen, as I suspect most Steinways have as well.

But as many have pointed out, the purpose of buying it had nothing to do with parking assets in a high yield financial 'instrument.'

It's classic salesmanship! A fool and his money are quickly parted when he confuses consumption with investment.

Turandot, using my specific case is not necessarily the most common example. I bought my piano from Pianobroker for what I know as a wholesale price. Secondly, being a Hamburg it is worth more and yet I didn't pay significantly more than a NY Steinway. Knowing what I paid for it, which I don't feel I need to discuss in the open, let's just say that I should be able to sell it for the same price as I paid without a problem. So yes, there are opportunities to buy a rebuilt without the risk of depreciation if bought wholesale directly from the rebuilder.

I know this to be true because I know prices of other Hamburgs and they're significantly more expensive than what I paid.

However, I can't generalize for someone else as someone buying retail from a dealer will of course experience depreciation. The issue here is that extra price that the dealer got gave the buyer, the service, backing, security of warranty, etc. is worth some money.

By buying from a rebuilder, you forego all that benefit but you do get a lower price. Risky for some people. Not much of risk in my mind since I understand what was rebuilt and I understand what might fail and how much it would cost to fix. Also the risk is eliminated as you build trust in your particular rebuilder/seller, in my case, Tony (Pianobroker).

When I was looking for rebuilds or original vintage pianos, I understood the price point to rebuild particular parts of a piano. I checked this with multiple rebuilders. In fact, I found Pianobroker through another rebuilder who did not happen to have the Steinway I was looking for. After looking at a lot of Steinways, one starts to understand how to price a used one. I saw many private party Steinways, and one starts to understand how much you should pay for let's say a vintage model by planning out what you should rebuild.

My point is that one can tell if a piano is worth it. The most important element of course being the sound. But once it passes that test, a quick examination of the basics reveal if the sound will stay stable in the long term.

Once a piano has been expertly rebuilt, the pinblock no longer becomes a concern as it has a 50+ year lifespan. The soundboard can easily be checked visually for problems. Problems with the bridge, capo, pressure bar, agraffes etc., aside from sound issues, reveal themselves physically as cracks and such. Easily checked. The only part that will wear in the next 20 years will be hammers and strings. This can easily be verified by an independent tech so that's the fallback for an uninformed buyer.

If I paid full retail for this, I'm certain you are correct that in 3 years time, I would have to lower my price.

Getting back into the fray of the original discussion, to me, the gist of it is simple. Forget the specific monetary figures for a moment.

If Piano X (non-Steinway) reaches a certain lifespan, let's say 30+ years, no one will buy the piano for a significant price because no will care to rebuild it. Due to the fact that there's a demand for Steinways even for rebuilding purposes, it creates this extra demand that pulls the price up. The numbers show that the Vintage pianos seem to perform the best. Some say because the build of the time and the wood is worth preserving.

Will this appreciation continue? I suppose while there's demand for new Steinways, and pianos in general, appreciation is assured. Sure there's a risk. But I think it is rare in life when we engage in something pleasurable and not actually lose money on it.

Compare to vacations, dining, sports cars, yachts, consumer electronics, digital pianos...

PianoDad: What is deceptive about that graph? It shows what people were willing to pay for the pianos in 1988 divided by what they originally cost new. I suppose you could argue that they should have adjusted for inflation, but other investment graphs don't do that either (such as stocks and mutual funds).

When we compare the "X original price" numbers to the Consumer Price Index over the same period of time (which measures inflation), we can say that the vintage Steinways have held their value.

Looking at the example you mentioned, what cost $1 in 1971 would cost $5.02 in 2006 (using the inflation calculator that's based on the Consumer Price Index). So if your piano is truly worth three times the 1971 price (in nominal dollars) then it has not quite kept up with inflation. You couldn't sell it today and expect to have the same purchasing power with the proceeds as you did in 1971. It would have to be worth five times the original price today (in nominal dollars) to have held its relative value over time.

I know you were basically guessing with your example, but it happens to mirror the results of the 1958-1978 Steinways, which haven't quite kept up with inflation either.

What's remarkable about the vintage Steinways (besides their sound) is the fact that they've managed to hold their values, which helps some people justify their decision to spend the extra money. The same may be true for other pianos, but we'd have to look at the data in order to say.

Whether the intial purchase of a Steinway grand will meet ones expectations as a solid appreciable comodity over the long haul and a smart long term investment is a mere perk as for the use and enjoyment you recieved from the ownership of this instrument over the years. Nobody is gonna buy Steinway grands put them in a time capsule hoping to cash in years later. I'd rather buy art coins,stamps,gold,trustdeeds,promissory notes etc.They take up less space and theres no restoration factors to contend with later. Most persons here would get more enjoyment from playing a Steinway over shuffling a stack of trust deeds or CDs.
I hate to sound redundant but there is no other piano once it has reached its use / life expectancy ( in need of total restoration) that has any value period.( exception some M&H ) When the restoration cost exceeds the the fair market value of that instrument it has no value. If one bought a new Steinway O in 1907 for $900, played it to death for the next 100 years,I would purchase it in it's totally unrestored state for 10K+ This is not one speculating as to fair market value this is real life

Mantix,

I simply don't trust the numbers in the diagram. We have no idea what they are measuring or how they have aggregated decades of pianos into a single number. This is how a paid consultant can give a client whatever number they want to tell the public.

Best,

David

BAH, HUMBUG!

from jazzwee
Hi Jazzwee,

The way I read your total response is that you weighed all factors and chose a course of action that you felt was best for you. You traded off some factors (warranty / actual age of piano / backing of the manufacturer) to get a lower price. You did this because you had enough confidence in the independent rebuilder. That's a little different from getting a wholesale price. Anyone who chose to buy from your rebuilder would be offered prices in line with those offered to you (I assume). I still think you would take a depreciation hit if for some reason you decided to sell your piano in three years. Assuming Broker and others were selling fresh rebuilds at prices in line with what you paid, you would be a private individual with a recent rebuild competing against a professional with a fresh rebuild. Having said that, I'm sure your individual decision made a lot of sense.

The more general issue is that Steinway can control its new prices, and as Broker pointed out, they can make an effort to control used and rebuilt prices as well by instructing their dealers to scarf up any old Steinway grands that are available to keep them away from independent rebuilders. If independents like Broker beat them to the punch in acquiring old Steinways at nominal prices, then the independents will be able to prevent Steinway from controlling the used and rebuilt Steinway market, and the going prices will be set by the competition among those independents and the usual supply and demand factors. So whether one is interested in a rebuild or not, it seems clear that independents who rebuild Steinways to high standards are serving consumers by counterbalancing Steinway's efforts to control the rebuild market. If Steinway's new pianos are perceived by buyers to be of insufficient quality to warrant their price, I suppose independent Steinway rebuilders will be in an even stronger position.

On the main issue here, the investment potential of a Steinway, anyone who looks at actual used prices of pianos will have to concede that Steinway and Yamaha do the best job of insulating their customers against the inevitable depreciation. Steinway's investment potential should only be compared to that of other pianos, and people comparing should not lose sight of the main value of that class of investment: the joy of actual ownership. For the same reason, the investment potential of a Motherwell should only be compared to that of a Rothko or similar painting, a Turkish carpet to a Persian, and a second home in the mountains to one by the sea. This whole category of investments is all about the joy one experiences during the period of ownership.

I suppose there are people who experience joy at watching their stock portfolios trend upward or their junk bonds pay off. But they will experience a lot of emotional distress when these investments are going south. Even if a Steinway's performance as an investment isn't quite what the buyer had in mind, the joy of playing it daily will more than offset any sense of disappointment.

PianoDad,

I'll agree with you that it's hard to place faith in just one source, and that lying with statistics is an art form to some people.

Fortunately for us, we also have the opinion of an expert who buys, sells, and rebuilds used Steinways every day.

According to him, a 1907 Steinway that originally sold for $900 is now easily worth $10,000 without any maintenance or repairs whatsoever. After full restoration, I'd venture to say it's worth at least twice that, or (correct me if I'm wrong) at least $20,000. That's an "x price paid" factor of 22.

Using the inflation calculator, $1 in 1907 is worth $21.64 today. So again, we see evidence that a maintained vintage Steinway is able to hold its relative value over time.

Another way of looking at it is that buying a vintage Steinway is like putting the money into an inflation-proof lockbox. You only have to pay for the maintenance. When you're done enjoying it, you can sell it and get the full purchasing power of your money back again. That's reassuring for someone who is nervous about buying a 100 year old piano.

Up until this last paragraph, Mantix, I agreed with your analysis, but phrases like "inflation-proof lockbox" and "you can sell it and get the full purchasing power of your money back again" make me very nervous. What your analysis showed is that somebody who bought a Steinway built in 1907 did all right when the family went to sell it in 2007. But there's no way of knowing that the person who buys a new Steinway in 2007 will have the same experience 50 or 100 years from now. The piano industry is changing, with some brands challenging the preeminence of the Steinway name; some people believe digitals will take over entirely (I don't, but the possibility's there); and who knows what the demand for pianos will be in 100 years.

The safest strategy is for people to assume that a piano purchase is a sunk cost and to buy a piano because you want it for your enjoyment, not because you need or want to make money on it as an investment. If you happen to do so, terrific! That makes you an atypical piano purchaser. But if you anticipate needing the money earmarked for the piano later for college tuition or retirement or whatever, imo you should put the money into safer, higher yield investments instead.

Mantix,

Supposing those 1907 numbers are true, the relevant one is 10K. That's a nominal appreciation of a factor of 10, when inflation over the period was much more. The fact that this person could then sink 15-20K into the piano to rebuild it is another investment decision entirely ...and one better left to dealers with their taste for risk.

Cheers,

David

Monica, according to the numbers we have, it seems only vintage Steinways are holding their relative values. More modern Steinways have not kept up with inflation. So yes, it would be a complete gamble to assume that buying a new Steinway was any sort of financial investment.

PianoDad, I've only said that a well maintained vintage Steinway will hold its relative value over time. If you don't tune or repair it when needed, then you shouldn't expect it's value to keep up with inflation.

Of course, if you don't tune or repair it when needed, then there's no point owning it in the first place. The joy of playing a Steinway comes first. Financial calculations are a distant second.

Turandot, assuming that used prices haven't changed, and I tried to sell it in a few years, I would expect to get a slight drop in price due to usage of the instrument.

If used prices go up a little bit as was the pattern, then I may do a little better and sell it for close to the same price.

The secondary issue here is availability and similar pricing. Hamburg vintage (non-Players) are so rare. In my analysis, it would be like an extra desirable Steinway. There are people buying the same piano for much much more. A rebuilder like Pianobroker, rarely encounters a Hamburg vintage so he won't even have another one to sell. That is of course a consideration in resale. (I can't speak for every rebuild purchase though as each case is unique).

Comparatively, remember that poster selling the Steinway S in the special veneer finish? That's a Steinway model that would not be in as much demand just due to the type of buyer involved. This may also apply to the Steinway D. The smaller sizes are more popular and thus would resell faster IMHO. All these affect one's ability to price for resale in the short term. In the long term, the gap between alternative offerings would be big enough that all Steinways historically have benefited.

Now you said that Steinway is buying up vintage pianos for rebuilds and this is affecting price. Yes, but only for wholesalers. Steinway doesn't buy the pianos to be junked, it buys them expecting to resell them. So they're not creating a rebuild market, the market already exists. Basically the market exists for a cheaper Steinway. In a way, the Steinway rebuilds are strange because the price of the complete rebuild is close to the price of a real piano so one wonders what the point was.

In general terms, I look at the historical price appreciation and do understand that future appreciation is not guaranteed. It may be that in 20 years, the next generation will find that the digitals have completely duplicated the performance of acoustics. So I'm realistic. And like most of us here, I don't buy a piano thinking of it as an investment but it is nice to know that the odds are stacked a little bit in favor of the Steinway brand (as opposed to other brands).

from jazzwee
Yes, one does wonder about that.

also from jazzwee
I think you've expressed it perfectly. If A Steinway buyer feels uncomfortable with a large outlay of coin at the outset, (s)he can draw some reassurance from that.

My wife Jennifer and I have been doing some research on this topic for a project for publication. We present some facts and conclusions which will not be popular with some folks.

Clearly the term "investment" has different meanings to folks comming at the issue from different directions i.e. bankers, businessmen, factory owners etc. Let's just consider Larry's original statement of need.

Axiom #1: All pianos appreciate in value over time.

The "street" selling price of a new S&S B was about $27,200 in 1986. It took 17 years for the street price to double on that product.

The street price of a Baldwin L was about $11,700 in 1986. It took 15 years for that price to double.

We took several samples of domestic, Japanese, and European pianos and can show that, on average, piano "street" selling prices have doubled in the last 16 years. They have averaged a 138% increase over the past 20 years. This creates a strong market for used pianos.

There is a depreciation - appreciation - depreciation cycle for all types and genres of pianos. First a dip below the purchase price for the first 3-5 years as it takes new price increases to counter the stigma of used vs. new. In years 6-15 the value will rise above your pruchase price and hug the street price of a new unit at about the 70% level. This rise will level off at about years 16-25 when it will no longer keep pace with new kprices. The years after 25 will see a gradual decline in value, but will rarely drop below the original purchase price.

Higher end pianos may enjoy a longer rise and level phse. Budget, low prifile pianos may suffer a shorter stint at each of the three phases.

If a buyer pays significantly higher than the "street" price at the beginning their charting is understandably thrown off.

Axiom #2: All pianos appreciate at about the same rate.

This will sound like profane heresy to high-end mfgrs. and to aficionados of the top tier brands, but our research supports this.

Our process and findings assume the following:
1. Pianos kept in top condition.
2. Pianos resold to end-users, i.e. private-party buyers.
3. Reselling pianos less than five years old will always return disappointing results.
4. Reselling stencil pianos, off brands, and defunct brand names, odd cabinet designs or colors will often bring disappointing results.

Naysayers to these ideas will invariably present scenerios where a seller paid too much, is selling at less than five years of ownership, and is selling to a dealer. They skew their givens to support their contentions. Our processes reflect real life probabilities.

Fascinating, Marty! Please post a link to the full article once you get it published. I'd love to read the details of your methodology and conclusions.

Will keep you posted.

Marty, generally your thesis is reasonable, except for the element that I said earlier. Only Steinways (and to a lesser extent Vintage M&H) are desirable for rebuild, which creates an extra demand for used at the time when the life span of a piano is typically over.

In the in-between time period of health piano life, I don't disagree. In fact, I think you stated it quite well. Specifically, I note Yamaha pianos which hold value quite well, until the point when they're going to need to be rebuilt. And of course they are not rebuilt.

jazzwee,

Are you saying that a piano such as your Hamburg is still to be measured in terms of value on its original life cycle, or is it a 'new' piano with a new cycle and a new valuation startin point?

Turandot, I can do multiple computations but I think this is already been said by Marty on all pianos.

Most fine quality pianos stay at the same price level (after the initial 3-5 year depreciation). From what I've seen, rebuilds seem to also stay at that constant price level. The amount of initial depreciation seems to be the only difference and this relates to how much one paid for it originally. So given this, distinguishing between original life cycle and new cycle doesn't appear to be relevant.

I haven't seen any evidence so far that rebuilds depreciate any faster than non-rebuilds.

In fact, nothing differentiates a recently rebuilt piano from an original vintage in that if they are Steinways, 40 years from now, I would imagine that they are all candidates for a fresh rebuild. I see nothing that prevents a rebuilt from being rebuilt a second time.

I'm just assuming this from a quality of original product here, I'm not forecasting tastes in 40 years. Heck, at that time, there may be no interest in piano forums either.

I thought when you countered Marty Flynn you were saying basically....don't forget that a Steinway's potential for rebuild makes its life cycle different from other pianos. I took that to mean that you felt the piano's life cycle was not over when it was completely rebuilt.

I guess that if you consider 2 different life cycles, then the first one ends with a valuation north of zero $, whatever is paid for the carcass to rebuild. So that should be taken into account in that even when the piano has reached the end and has no musical value, it still has some residual value as a carcass.

But then you start a new life cycle. The 'new' piano is the rebuild. I don't know if anyone has statistics on the valuation cycle of a rebuild. Maybe Marty does. Maybe he can comment. But I doubt that all that many complete rebuilds get completely rebuilt a second time...too much resistance in the customer base to costly pianos that are that old. I'm not trying to pick on your Hamburg, but it's a convenient example. You have cited that it's of special interest and value because it's a Hamburg. Fair enough, but in fifty years that Hamburg will be close to 140 years old. It would need to be of very special interest for a rebuilder to undertake the expense of completely rebuilding it again.


Another point, again nothing personal here. I'm only bringing it up because you are a vocal and enthusiastic endorser of Steinway rebuilds on this forum, both in terms of musical quality and financial considerations.

I can't agree with you that your depreciation from the point of purchase of a rebuld would be merely a function of years of use. I think you would take a hit just because you would be a private seller giving second-hand info about the rebuild. Also, many new pianos have transferable warranties. As I understand it, if you have a warranty at all, it is not transferable. The initial depreciation hit is really no different IMO than the hit a private seller would take selling a piano they bought factory-new from a dealer. In general, customers always expect to pay less when buying privately. Usually they get their way.

Of course I know why you bought your piano, to enjoy it. So don't get in a lather about this.

Turandot, I take no offense whatsoever. All I know is that, if you're a buyer looking for a Hamburg rebuild, you'd know what price you'd be willing to pay for it. I already know here what others have paid for an Ex-Player Hamburg (Mantix has one). I know the price of the few Hamburgs around. I know what rebuilders price the pianos when it's wholesaled to a dealer. So I'm basing my own 'value'/'price' judgements on that and I admit this is atypical but based on what I know for my case, the depreciation is not an issue of significance.

Regarding rebuilds being rebuilt again, you could be right that the cost of the carcass might be more on something that's already rebuilt. But on the other hand, consider that the original vintage Steinways at 140 years of age will either (a) run out of supply as they will all be eventually rebuilt, (b) the remaining would be so old and be obviously non-functional that they will have sustained permanent unrestorable damage.

So when anyone is looking for original 1920's vintage stock due to the value of the original wood (which is getting rarer every year), maybe the only remaining choice will be to hit the previously rebuilt stock.

One other point. Today, one could say a vintage is $10K and let's say an equivalent rebuilt is $25K. But in 40 years, the comparative pricing could be $110K vs. $125K for the carcass (obviously an extreme example). The appreciation is always based on the value of a new one. They don't appreciate based on their purchase price as a fixed ROI.

BTW - Many people buy and sell used pianos on Craigslist without the benefit of a dealer. I have bought and sold 2 pianos on Craigslist, and I have also sold digital pianos there. So when I'm speaking of private party selling, I don't think my opinions are too far fetched. I sold my used piano, bought from a dealer, at the same price I paid (within 6 months). I eye Craigslist often for comparison and will typically find previously rebuilt Steinways. There's a consistency in what I see. The market evens out the supply and demand.

Wait a second, are we seeking truth??

Or, like certain media - should we be helping a member of our community who is trying to sell the Mrs. on the notion of a quality piano?

Please, let us rescue our dear friend...when statistics stall, let us go to anecdotes...

I bought a used model M Steinway in 1985 for $5,000 and sold it 5 years later for $10,000.

That's not bad considering in the meantime, I got many hours of pleasure from playing it.

Can we cherry pick a few more morsels for the cause???

Jazzwee,

I think we are talking past each other and not connecting. Let's simplfy things.

You feel that your rebuild will lose value very slowly (if at all) because a Hamburg non-player rebuild is a rare desirable instrument. Also pianobroker, with his vast knowledge of the price potential of his pianos, for whatever reason chose to sell it to you at a price well below its true market value. These feelings offset any concerns you might have about lack of warranty, age of the original piano, and the ability of the rebuild to have a usable life equal to that of a new piano.

So, then I take it you are not[/b] endorsing the investment value of rebuilt pianos in general, or of pianobroker's inventory in general, and not inferring that such rebuilds make more economic sense than the purchase of a factory-new piano.

Would that be a fair statement?

I think that's an important distinction because you have many posts on this forum which readers might interpret otherwise.

Larry,

Wow! - you really opened up a great discussion on the forum. I'm amazed at the critical financial analysis, and if that's what you need to "convince" your wife of the Steinway's long term value, then go for it. Personally, I think you sometimes just need to get right to the heart of the matter, and save the song and dance for other venues. If your heart is pulled toward a Steinway - then tell your dear wife that this is what you'd like to purchase. Find the piano of your dreams, and plunk down the cash. Every so often when you sit down to play and your wife is in the room, take a moment to turn around and smile at her, thank her for supporting your love of music. She won't dare begrudge you the purchase if she truly loves you.

Best Wishes!

You very astute in noticing that I don't try to generalize about all pianos or even all Steinways. I'm not trying to imply that I'm some smarty pants with extra knowledge. My point about the Hamburg is ony with respect to a single issue: Initial Depreciation[/b]. All I'm saying is that how good your initial deal is affects your potential loss or lack thereof in a short term sale.

Beyond the point of initial depreciation, all pianos even out IMHO and the initial depreciation being less of an issue percentage wise.

Will some other Steinway piano fare the same from the same rebuilder (with respect to this initial depreciation)? I don't honestly know as there's more available NY Steinways. But generally speaking, the extra price in retail (from comissions, dealer profit, dealer cost and prep), are not recoverable in a private sale since that is a dealer Value added. By buying direct from a rebuilder, it is closer to the price of a private sale.

As I stated originally, although one cannot be certain of the economic sense of purchasing a rebuild vs. new, at least one can be more assured that a 'educated' private sale will yield better short term value.

Similarly, as one looks for a piano from various sources, as one approaches the price of a 'private sale', then one can counter the initial depreciation concern. In fact, someone very savvy here could theoretically make a profit doing this. Isn't this what dealers do day in day out? 'Private Sale' for used pianos is quite a bit similar to 'wholesale' price for new pianos isn't it? Thus, 'wholesale' rebuild prices can't be too far off can it?

Just to clarify a couple inferences on my behalf
Steinway's warranty on a new piano is 5 years as to the structural integrity againest manufacture
defect. I offer the same warranty on our restored pianos. We rebuilt it so we can address anything /valid warranty issue. I usually will take care of a client even if it is technically not a warranty issue. No big deal! Technically a Steinway dealer is limited in their capabilities to address a warranty issue. Most are of a retail showroom and have the capability as for field repairs only.

I am not a typical retail dealer though I sell to end users all day long. As in Jazzwees's scenario
I was able to sell him the piano at a certain pricepoint because I acquired the piano (unrestored/original) at way less than fair market therefore passing the savings and value to the client. I do not conform to a retail sales philosopty "I'm going to make a killing on this piano considering what I acquired it for plus what I got into it" It's called keep your inventory moving. Of course,I am not one to kill the market, though low overhead has it's advantages

I'm not trying to toot my own horn here but I needed to clarify some misconceptions.

I see where you're going on this....that the educated buyer can do well scouring the market for private sale instruments priced so low to actual market value that they will offset depreciation. I see a couple of potential problems with that.

1. If you scan Craigslist, look at auction inventory, check for estate sales, etc., you will get a good sense of the prices asked, not so much of the actual price paid if the item is sold. You said in an earlier post that you check Steinway prices on Craigslist. Sure, you get to see what people are asking. But you don't know what they are getting, or if they will be able to sell at all.

2. A dealer of new, used, or rebuilt can add value in many areas, a warranty being first and foremost. I would venture to say that for a lot of shoppers of expensive used and rebuilt, a warranty would be a very important consideration.

3. A shopper who feels he is 'educated',or as you say 'savvy', can often outsmart himself. I know several instances (admittedly anecdotal evidence) of piano shoppers who saw their deal of a lifetime turn into something else. I'm sure you have seen instances of this as well.

But hey....jazzwee.... You answered my question, so have a great day!...(what's left of it)

Turandot, regarding Craigslist, one will notice that it isn't a static listing. You only get a 7 days of posting. So you will notice people adjusting their prices every week and then, thereafter you will see the posts disappear (usually sold). Of course that's simplistic. During the course of my piano search, I talked to these people. This is where I got my education on poor rebuilds BTW as I had a first hand look.

Also, although you may not know what the bottom price is, you will know the point at which a piano will not sell. Case in point: Local Craigslist, Jazz Venue selling late 80's gray C3 piano for $15K. Not selling. Clue: Overpriced for age and condition.

In general, buying from a private source is not for everyone, certainly not in the early stages when I was first looking for a piano. It is reserved for a few (fortunately for dealers). So your caution is quite warranted.

In my case, I had the fortune of spending time with multiple rebuilders and thus had a 'seminar' on evaluating Steinways.

If a buyer is considering a 1920 rebuilt Steinway B. The only considerations over the way it plays and sounds, will be the quality of the rebuild and the age of the rebuild. The fact that the piano had been rebuilt one, two, or three times since 1920 would be irrelevant.

Marty did raise some good points here.
I'm not sure what kind of "research" he has done, and how the values for the used pianos were calculated, given different condition and usage, but my experience in the industry agrees with much of what Marty posted… but not with all of it.

Indeed, many pianos "appreciate" in dollar value after a certain period of time given that the dollar depreciate and most things, including new piano prices, get more expensive.
Of course, the initial purchase price of an instrument plays a role in how long it will take a retail buyer to get the same dollar amount he paid for a piano reselling it back to a dealer.

For a common home size instrument (up to 7'), and for a piano used in a home setting, a time period of about 15 years seems reasonable, assuming the buyer got a fair deal on a new quality piano to "break even" selling it back to a dealer.
It would be faster to get to this point by selling the piano privately, but often the inconvenience to both buyer and seller does not warrant the price difference, especially when taking to account the amount of work needed to bring the piano to a TRUE showroom condition.

Steinway pianos too will reach this "break even" point with inflation, but it would take them a few years longer to get there (I would say around 20 - 22 years), since it appears that the margins on new Steinway pianos are significantly greater than those on most other quality pianos. Affectively, this is creating a situation where a piano costing more than a Steinway on the wholesale level, may be sold new for less than a new Steinway.

However, most performance-oriented pianos, including Steinway, justify the first of two major cycles of work in a piano’s life.
After approximately 35 - 40 years, given a reasonable environment and medium to low usage, a good quality piano would need some major work. Usually at this time, one would expect to replace the hammers, regulate the action, replace the key bushings, install new strings, new pins, new damper heads, and do some furniture work as well as regulating the dampers. Some in the industry refer to such work as "rebuilding or restoration", I usually refer to this kind of relatively limited (in comparison to restoration) scope of work as reconditioning.

The cost of this limited reconditioning, depending greatly on WHAT has actually been done, WHAT parts where used, and perhaps the most important, WHAT was the level of workmanship performed, will range anywhere between $5,000 - $10,000.

Of course, the cost of reconditioning also greatly depends on the standards and expectations of both rebuilder and customer.

While most performance oriented pianos justify such an investment, one is less likely to spend $8,000 for reconditioning a mass produced instrument with a low current market value of $4,000 - $5,000, and especially when a new instrument with similar performance can be bought for only a little more than the combined cost of reconditioning and current piano value.

Hence, many instruments seem to keep their value for about 20 years or so, will see dramatic price reduction when past the 20 - 25 years of age, until they have very little value, if any at all after the 30 years mark. If these instruments were kept in a less than favorable environment, or got a heavier than normal usage, it is more likely than not that they will not justify the cost of the work needed.

Lower end instruments, which may need even more work due to initial compromises in materials, cutting corners during production, or initial inexperienced labor, will often have very little value in a substantially shorter time period since no one is going to invest in any major work for these, which is likely to cost more than an entire similarly performing new piano...
Often we hear the comment of "such and such instruments were not built to last"...but it is even more important that these pianos do not justify the cost of major repair when needed.

So while most high performance instruments justify this initial major work cycle and will keep on retaining their dollar value beyond that stage, many of the mass produced instruments will simply become obsolete.

In regards to the second cycle of work, which is usually also much more expensive (2 – 3 times the cost of the first work cycle), almost any discussion will probably be moot. It is not very productive to try and guess what will happen 70 years from now.
I personally doubt that the full restoration industry will be a viable business for many more years, and doubt that anyone will want to truly restore any instruments, Steinway or any other make, except for perhaps a sentimental value.

I personally doubt that the full restoration industry will be a viable business for many more years, and doubt that anyone will want to truly restore any instruments, Steinway or any other make, except for perhaps a sentimental value.

Ori, Boy I hope you're not a psychic though in 70 years I'll be six feet under in a Steinway B case

Ori, up to the just before the last paragraph, I was mostly in agreement and it conforms to what I've been saying.

But when you got to the last paragraph, I certainly disagree at least for the immediate future unless tastes change. The reason is that there will always be a demand for less expensive Steinways.

The other part which I think is a guess on your part is the the fact that you believe Steinways will appreciate slower because of the larger gap between wholesale and selling price. I disagree with this because the difference in margin is not some artificial value but some price that a buyer is willing to pay, which is a premium vs. other pianos. In other words it's tied to supply/demand ratio, and if nothing changes in tastes, I don't see how one can predict a change in patterns of buying.

Unless of course there's some new sentiment/trend that you know of that you haven't shared.

Jazzwee,
I'm pleased that you agree with most of what I said.
In regards to what you do not agree with...while you may relate to my words as a "guess", I would describe it more as an educated opinion based on my knowledge and involvement in the industry.

Could I be wrong?

Of course... but the fact is that I'm running a very successful business with a double digit constant yearly growth in what seems to be a shrinking industry, including in this area of the country, where even established and long running dealerships have gone belly up in recent years, and the few newcomers forced to an "early retirement" only a year or two after opening their doors, or they seem to be struggling to survive.

One of the factors contributing greatly to any business success or failure is, in my opinion, the ability to read the market, identify coming trends and changes, and adjust accordingly.

So, I do base my opinion on the way I read the market, as a result of interacting with many customers and industry people alike, knowing the piano business in and out, and keeping a hand on the pulse of the industry.

The reason that we have differing opinions is that you form your opinion on: "what was in the past is also what will be in the future", not taking to account major overall changes occurring in the market, and your remarks are based on a statement I don't necessarily agree with like:

"there will always be a demand for less expensive Steinways".

In any case, you yourself have put a qualifier on your words with the phrase: "if nothing changes"...
Well, that's a big IF, and as it happens, I believe that great changes are occurring in the industry as we write this, and these already have a great affect, a trend which will only keep growing.

I have no objection to explain the reasoning behind my view of the industry, but if your basic assumption is that things are going to remain stagnant, can not change, and what was will remain such in the future, then I’m not sure if my comments will be seen as productive.

Ori, I'm quite open minded actually. I made my comment from lack of visualization of any change in Steinway demand. It will be quite productive to hear your opinion. If you read my words, I'm always qualifying it with 'not knowing' the future.

I'm also realistic enough to know that I bought a piano for performance, so if price appreciation doesn't come, I won't come out shocked.

I stated earlier that development in digital pianos may change people's tastes. We're obviously not there yet but who knows in 40 years. So I'm not in the "cannot change camp".

I didn't care for Mr. Haughts explanation of trends though because it sounded like a passive attitude of 'let's wait for the ax to fall' and bottom feeders will take over the world.

I will reply then to your question.
Please except though my advanced apology since in order to understand the trend I’ll refer to, some basic explanations are needed, and this may be a rather long post.

The viability of the true restoration market, as well as the price buyers are paying for new instruments are both deeply connected.
A true high quality full restoration of an instrument is very expensive. I’m talking about the kind of restoration where all major parts are replaced with new (including the soundboard), the best parts are selected, seasoned, matched to the instrument, and only highly skilled (and expensive) workers are used in rebuilding the piano.
The finish of such instrument should look as good, if not better, than a comparable new piano by the same company, and the overall tonal performance should too either compare or exceed that of new such instrument.

A simple fact of life is that the best and most experienced people would like to get paid for their work, and they go to whom ever is willing to pay the most, and/or work independently for themselves.

Our family owned and run restoration facility, which is most likely the largest in the country outside of Steinway for restoring such pianos, is well aware of this.
We install new boards and fully restore close to 100 Steinway pianos each year, and many of the people working with us were working for Steinway for many years gathering experience before they left to rebuilders like us who are willing to pay more. Still, by the way, some of the best people we have, were actually trained in house.

In any case, high end rebuilding is quite costly, and any customer would find out that the cost for complete, quality work is expensive.
True high end restoration appeals usually to customers who have rather high expectations and standards, and who can afford, should they decide, to get a new Steinway.
Truly high end rebuilding of a 6’ piano will easily cost $25,000 - $30,000, and although significantly less expensive rebuilding may be available, my opinion, based on seeing thousands of such “rebuilds” remains that partial or incompetent work is not a good option for most consumers in the long run.
I understand that some people may see things differently.


Now, the restoration industry is depended upon the ability to get the money invested into rebuilding the piano back, as well as making a profit.
We do not restore for reselling any other instruments except Steinway and Mason & Hamlin pianos, in spite of the fact that there are other makes that were producing fine pianos 100 years ago.
Let’s take a 100 years old 6’ Chickering for example, even if the instrument prior to restoration has zero dollar value, not many people would pay upwards of $30,000 for piano with the name Chickering on the fallboard, meaning that it isn’t viable right now to truly rebuild such a piano. When I see such an instrument with the title of “restored” it usually only received partial rebuilding, and /or got a level of work which although may be satisfactory to some, I find way below standard.
I do not wish to insult anyone making a living from partially rebuilding or repairing such pianos. In fact, repairing such instruments, to a certain degree and in certain cases may make sense for a consumer wanting to stretch a bit more life out of an instrument, and that does not have the highest expectations, perhaps partly because of limited exposure to many true high end pianos and rebuilding.
Such a consumer may very well take this route, and be very pleased with the results.
This is especially true as long as the consumer understand that when the time comes to sell the instrument, they will most likely still not have much value in that repaired piano.

Although a Chickering from the turn of the century may be as good as a Steinway of that priod IF it is indeed rebuilt properly, it is not viable to truly rebuild it.
The fact remains that the prices of instruments prior to rebuilding are rather set in the market, and the differences rebuilders are willing to pay for pianos in need of full restoration are relatively small, and often within a few hundred dollars of each other, while some get double the money for the finished product.
If a rebuilder is willing to overpay for a piano in need of rebuilding, he will only be less competitive later when the extra cost of acquiring the piano is rolled over to the end consumer.


It is rather simple really. Most of the value of a rebuilt piano is in the restoration rather than the instrument itself.
A $5,000 Steinway prior to restoration can be sold for anywhere between $20,000 and $40,000. The difference is in the cost and quality of the work.
Consumers are not stupid, I can assure you that, and they will NOT pay double for something that is the same, and no independent rebuilder has the marketing advantage in the shape of claiming that they are “Steinway” allowing them to charge more money.

An older Chickering or Knabe prior to the rebuilding has close to zero value for a rebuilder. Since the restoration cost is going to be pretty much the same as that of a Steinway, but there is no way of getting the same amount of dollars for it, so most high-end rebuilders will shy from trying to fully restore such pianos for reselling them.

So… how could this reality be affected by the changes occurring in the new piano market, and why would I feel that the viability of the rebuilding industry is questionable in the future, probably sooner than most rebuilders and industry people would think?

This post is already getting too long…and there is still much more coming, I will answer these questions and explain the connection in my next post.
In the meanwhile, those who usually claim that “pianos last forever” (BDB), ignoring the realities of wood and how it is affected by the enormous stresses in the pianos, and those who apparently lack the ability to do any real major repairs to pianos, will surely find the time to chime in and let me know that they see things differently, and that rebuilders investing a lot of money into restoring pianos are only motivated by greed…

Once these obligatory comments are out of the way, I could hopefully focus then on the real subject and get to the changing trend in the industry and the reasons I see for it happening.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Ori:

.... I could hopefully focus then on the real subject and get to the changing trend in the industry and the reasons I see for it happening.

QUOTE]

Perhaps then, this would warrant a new thread?

It would make for an interesting topic on its own.

I am sure that there will be several comments and it might not just involve the 'Steinway grand as a future investment value' that this thread titles...

LL

Well, this question is hardly obligatory, and I have no desire to impede you on your journey.

There have been many Steinway-related threads recently. One thing that emerged was that many are willing to pay close to, equal to, or more than the price of a new Steinway product to buy a similar size Steinway 'heirloom' or similar piano from a party who is considered to be a top indedpendent rebuilder.

A Steinway dealer posted the following comment yesterday in defending Steinway 'heirlooms'.

from pianomadam
With all this r & d from the some of the finest minds in the industry, why does a rebuilt Steinway of 75 or 100 years ago command a price so similar to a new Steinway? Has all this r & d discovered nothing that could enhance the original design and make it clearly superior to a rebuilt piano from that long ago?

My advice is to buy the Steinway B because I like the B way better than a Baldwin L. If you do not agree then get the L. Neither piano will have a good resale unless you maintain them and keep them in the proper humidity. To me the investment quality is not in resale but in pleasure. If you want a good investment buy gold.

This is actually a good question, turandot, I would consider relating to it too as part of my next post, when I have more time, but usually when such marketing comments are made by Steinway salespeople, I like to ask them to provide a bit more rope to hang themselves with before responding.

Apparently I missed the thread you are referring to, otherwise, I would have asked Pianomadam to list at least a few of the major improvements the R&D department at Steinway came up with during the past 70 years, having some of "the best minds in the industry" working for them...

Please make sure to present this question to her next time she feel the need to post.

This thread originally surrounded used S&S. Ori has widened the topic to include others.

On a daily basis I see 25-45 year old instruments for sale in the stores I am in and out of. The actual selling prices of these instruments are often 2X what the instrument sold for new. Ori's predictions of "dramatic reductions" after age 20 and "little or no value" after age 30 simply do not prove out in my experience.

Even crappy Kimball Whitney spinets that sold for $449 in the early 70's are still selling at retail for over $650.

We all encounter "gray market" U1's from the early 1970's (35 yo) selling for $3500 when they sold new for under $2400. This is still a 146% retention of value even after age 35. How many years will it take for that 1972 U1 to drop below its original selling price? Another 10? Another 20? Almost never?

How many of us have seen pianos at age 60-70 that are all original, that are still owned and played with pride?

Ori's premise that only high end (S&S and M&H) pianos will warrant the cost of rebuilding is sound financially. However there is a huge sea of instruments not of this profile that will be used and resold without rebuilding.

With Ebay, Craigs List, You Tube and other electronic opportunities why would anyone ever sell a used piano to a dealer? This scenerio is more the exception to the reality than the rule.

I never said pianos last forever. There are many pianos whose lifetimes are severely limited, usually by, and in inverse proportion to the monetary needs of, the rebuilder making the evaluation.

However, they do last indefinitely. After all, I can not tell you precisely when any work that I do on a piano will need to be done again. I bet Ori does not tell his customers, "This piano I am selling will need to be completely redone in..." even though he claims that all soundboards are toast after what, 10 years? (Nobody has ever stated how long exactly!)

The reason that only Steinways and Mason & Hamlins get "true high end restoration" is because the restorers who do nothing but those brands cannot sell their talents on their own merit and need the cachet those names provide to sell. Despite what Ori says, it is not that "most of the value of a rebuilt piano is in the restoration rather than the instrument itself." Most of the cost of a rebuilt piano is in the restoration rather than the instrument itself. Most of the value to the buyer is in the name on the piano. Except for those of us who do appropriate work on any piano, regardless of the name on it.

Craigen,
Perhaps I didn't explain myself clearly enough. When I talk about "little or no value after 25 or 30 years", I'm not talking about what a retailer, who may, or may have not done some work to an instrument, is asking for it in a retail store.

I'm also not talking about a situation of a private sale, where often people ask way too much for the instrument, and others sometimes way over pay over a very wide range.

I'm talking about the consumer who bought an instrument in a retail store, and that would like now to sell it back to a dealer.
In the end, the amount of money pianos area really worth for dealers will have a direct relation to the amounts pianos are sold for privately.

The question is not how much a dealer "specializing" in such instruments will charge for a 1970's Kimball Whitney, but how much will he be paying for one when a consumer is calling him and wanting to sell it.
I for one, as other dealers I know, will decline (and am declining) this piano, and many "better" pianos for free any day of the week.

BDB,
I'm not sure what you're willing to bet, but whatever it is you have already lost.
In the post I made before, I suggested that given average conditions and playing, the first cycle of major work could be expected after 35 - 40 years. This is also the time frame I give my customers when they are looking to either buy a new piano, used piano, restore their piano, or fix their piano. This is, as I suggested in the beginning of that post, a rather basic information. I also tell them that usually after 60 - 70 years, a second and much more costly cycle of work is expected given the same conditions.

If I'm saying it now, and have said it here before publicly, it should not be surprising to you that I will also tell this to my customers. The difference is, that my customers get also a rather detailed explanation, if they show any interest as to WHY it is the case.

I also explain people that excessive playing or exposing the piano to extreme humidity changes can greatly access the deterioration of the piano, and also that under certain conditions some parts of the piano may be better preserved, but also the trade offs involved.

Please remember that indeed we are talking here about averages and the expected life of a piano.
Please also remember that “in great shape” is very relative, just like someone who is 80 years old and in “great shape” is not necessarily going to run faster than an average, or even below average 20 years old man.
Finally, please remember that much of ones happiness with a piano is a matter of tonal expectations, as well as what is nearby this piano in comparison.
I have seen all too many times pianos described as “gorgeous” and “beautiful” become rather miserable and ugly sounding once moved and placed side by side with much finer instruments, although nothing was done to them. Their performance only paled in comparison to the other pianos now present.

In any case, let me remind you that there is nothing you can do to a piano that either me or the people in our shop can not do, and probably do every day to save, repair or increase the performance of a salvageable board...but that you, in contrast, have not the equipment nor the ability to replace soundboards or perform full restorations.
Also remember that my business have a few different legs to support it, and piano restoration is only a part of it, while it seems that piano tuning and “in house” repair represent the core of your business, and an agenda you seem to be very eager to push..


So although I understand that you have your opinion, which I highly disagree with, I would ask you not to assign any interpretations as to the reasons that I, or any of the most highly thought of rebuilders in the country are regularly replacing boards, and choose to take this route.

Assigning interpretations can be a double edged sword, as I'm sure you know, and can be used either way, probably taking the thread to a different course than most people would like to see.
I hope that now, once you have made your obligatory and predicted comments, I can proceed and relate to the much more interesting question Jazwee asked.

I'm in suspense...

Jazzwee,
It seems that after the obligatory comments, I got the green light to proceed and answer your comments.

So what trend is occurring, in my opinion, and affecting the piano industry to the degree that true rebuilding is going to be a less viable business?

Well, in the past 50 years or so, a few companies have established presence as a “brand name” through a great investment in marketing and some other historical reasons.
Steinway is probably the first coming to mind, and the most successful in this regard, but Yamaha, Bladwin and probably Kawai are also instruments that have had great investment in marketing, and became a household name. Ask the average person in the street what brands of pianos he is familiar with, and most likely these will be the ones coming up.

If anyone is interested, by the way, I would gladly provide at least a partial list of some of the marketing investment and historical reasons I’m talking about in another post.

In any case, while Bladwin seem to no longer be a major factor in the market, and its decline may be blamed on bad management decisions and manufacturing problems in the 1990’s, and whileYamaha and Kawai’s sharp decline in unit sales could be attributed to a growing number of lower priced pianos from Korea and later China cutting to their lower end, what happened at the higher end of the market?

It seems that NY Steinway sales to the private market have gone south in the past few years, a trend that I believe will only keep on growing, especially when compared to the record sales set by some other higher end companies in the US in the past few years.

How do I know that?

Well first, as it turns, Steinway is a publicly traded company, purchased in the 1990’s by a duo of two very talented financiers (I think they were working for awhile with/under Michael Milken, the “junk bond king” at Drexel Burnham & Lambert), and they do publish annual reports.

From these reports one can learn that Hamburg Steinway is doing very well, having new markets opening for them in China and Russia, and have increased its grand piano sales in the past two years from 957 to 1100 units.
Hamburg Steinways are being sold all over the world, by the way, except in the US and Canada, where NY Steinway is selling pianos…this is with the exception, of course, of a good number of the concert grands provided partially by Hamburg, which are “serving” in Steinways loaner bank of 300 concert grand pianos in the USA.

Steinway institutional sales also seems to be very successful and growing rapidly (I guess that no one is going to get fired for getting a Steinway for their school), adding 18 new schools and conservatories to the “all Steinway schools roster” in the past two years (from 50 to 68), the majority of these new schools are in North America, as I understand, and being supplied by NY Steinway.

The number of Steinway dealers and showrooms have also increased by about 8% in the past few years, and at least some in the US, allowing for a significant theoretical increase in shipments of new pianos from the factory, since new dealers need to build inventory. In fact, an 8% increase in dealers and showrooms should account, in my opinion for a much larger percentage increase of factory shipments because the dealer will have to stock 5–10 of these pianos before he have sold even one instrument to a retail customer…

Still, however, NY Steinway shipments from the factory have DECLINED in the past two years by more than 9% from 2237 (in 2004), to 2114 (in 2005) and to 2034 units shipped (in 2006).
This decline is in spite the success of the “all Steinway school program”, and increased numbers of pianos shipped to institutions, as well as to any new dealers building inventory.
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To me it seems when looking at these numbers, and taking all factors into account, that NY Steinway sales to the PRIVATE market, have declined much more sharply than the 9% reported as factory shipments. I would not want to speculate as to how much greater, but it seems to be a significantly greater decline than 9%.
In the end, it isn’t about how many pianos are shipped from the factory, but how many pianos are actually sold in the US to the private market.

Combine this information with the reports we hear recently on the forum, and in other places, about Steinway dealers lowering prices and giving discounts much greater than we learned to expect (although still relatively small in comparison to the rest of the industry), and the picture gets clear.
I can almost hear the screeching halt of sales stopping.

But I do not really need to read Steinway’s annual reports to know that this is the trend.
I can FEEL it in my showroom, and I have attended and rearranged the mix of my pianos to answer the change in demand in recent years well befor it was reflected in the numbers.

In the late 1990’s, more than half of my showroom consisted of Steinway pianos.
Many of the customers coming in stated upon looking at all the Steinways, in an agonizing voice, that it has always been their “dream” owning a Steinway…even if they were not willing to spend the money for one.
Many other customers have come to my showroom ONLY looking for Steinway pianos, and nothing else. They wanted to “select” the right Steinway, and would often be displeased by the mere suggestion of looking at another piano as well, even if only for the sake of comparison.
Only a decade ago, most people looking for a decent piano were first thinking of Steinway, if they could not afford one, or did not want to spend the money for one, well…than there was always Yamaha at a considerably lower budget, and if not Yamaha, than Kawai, or Baldwin.
These were the pianos people were looking for, almost all others were merely stumbled upon, unless one was a piano aficionado or particularly familiar with one brand or another.

While I still get some of these customers nowadays, the majority of today’s consumers seems to be much more open to the possibility that Steinway is not the ONLY high performance piano, and they are eager to try other brands.
Some of the customers coming to our showroom even make remarks such as “I’m not really interested in a Steinway, I know that they are overpriced for the level of performance they provide, and I’m not the one to overpay for the name”…

The change is so dramatic, that one must ask WHY did it occur.
The only answer I can come up with is rather simple.
The Internet.

The Internet is now equalizing the playing field.
While in the past, only makers with big budgets and great marketing efforts were the instruments consumers were looking for, the picture has now changed.
Consumers are now searching, wanting to play instruments that they would have never even considered or heard of before…especially people who can play the piano and evaluate for themselves.
While the production numbers in the mass produced market are great, the relatively small niche market of high performance pianos is much more prone to show this change, in the way of lost sales to the Steinway private market.

I can tell you that in the past couple of years, I have personally witnessed a great number of Estonia, Bluthner or Bosendorfer pianos that were sold from our showroom, instead of Steinway pianos (whether new, used or rebuilt), including the Steinway pianos in our showroom.
I can tell you that Estonia is working at full capacity for a few years now, and that Bluthner had a record-braking year in 2006 USA sales. They even started building an addition to their factory to be able and increase production. This is in sharp contrast to the decline NY Steinway has in sales to the private consumer.

The demographic of the buyers also seem to confirm in my mind that the Internet is the main factor in this trend. Most of those who are still coming to “select” a Steinway, and are less open to other possibilities, appear as they have done less research and are more prone to fall for all the marketing slogans we here from time to time, including the “investment value” that started this thread.
Even more surprising to me is that many piano teachers, whom I would hope would take a keen interest in pianos and the different tonal characteristics they provide, seems to know even less than most consumers about instruments, and have almost never tried another high end piano except a Steinway.
It is apparent that they do not do much research or reading on the web, and most are still recommending the same few pianos they are familiar with…


In all, I think that the name Steinway will keep on eroding, as people become aware that there are other choices out there…
[/b]
The more people are aware that other choices are available, the greater is the likelihood that they try, and often choose a piano other than a Steinway.
Eventually, this will lead to a decline in new Steinway prices, and/or to consumer putting less importance on the Steinway name.

In terms of the rebuilding market, I would say that the current value of the name Steinway represents anywhere between 25% - 35% of what the buyer is paying for whether the piano is new, used or rebuilt. As consumers put less value into the name, and will be less willing to pay for it, the viability of true rebuilding for reselling market will become questionable, in my opinion.
Why would someone rebuild a piano if they can get an instrument which they like far better than either a rebuilt Steinway, a new Steinway, or a used Steinway for a similar budget.

Once the mystique of the name disappears, and the public realizes that the king IS naked, the fine silk of the non-existing shirt is looking much less impressive.

In my opinion it isn’t a matter of IF but only a matter of WHEN.
I hope that answers your question.


Disclaimer:
This post represent only my opinion.

Great story.

And I still love my naked king.

Ori
I don't know where to start after reading your manifesto of the rise and fall of Steinway in the coming years. I'd like to state that I am in agreement as for the majority of your obligatory comments relating to the present state of the restoration industry. I can relate 100% as for the rise in restoration standards and cost, eventually making a piano of lesser fair market value not feasible to restore. As stated the only exception being the sentimental family heirloom where one could care less as to their upsidedown status

I am definitely not in agreement as to the indirect eventual fall of the high end restoration industry. (Steinway in particular) As long as there are status conscious individuals in this capitalistic society, there will always be status symbols of the rich and sucessful.
I sell more Steinway grands than anyone on the west coast. After looking statistically at my stereotypical buyer,they are the doctors,lawyers,celebrities entertainment moguls, high level executives etc. Unfortunately it is not your piano teacher or aspiring musician more deserving of this level of instrument.Life is not always just and fair.
Even if one can acquire an instument that is of equal merit and sound at half the price,that accounts for a low percentage of the prospective Steinway buyer. You are defying human nature. Its called "Keeping up with the Changs"
The day that people put less value in the name is the day that Mercedez Benz,Bently,Ferrari ,Harley Davidson
Porsche call it quits and cease production because everyone is buying Honda Accords.
"Steinway grands also sound pretty good I've heard'

I think your perspective may be tainted in that you reside in a venue where the Steinway market, for new or restored is extra competitive. Where else could it be more competitive than in New York. Also the trend as to the rise in Steinway restoration prices and remanufactured Steinways has not hit the west coast. We have friends at Steinway ready to make the move when the market really accelerates which is soon. Maybe we're at the right place at the right time. When the economy is at a low and $ and times are tight,Iv'e noticed one thing the Steinway buyer still has $ and shops year around for that ultimate Steinway.
Steinway dealers are still thriving here selling at near retail. The only thorn in their side is high end restoration co.s like ourselves which capitalize on the savvy Steinway buyer.
When a piano professional forsees a change in the piano industry it becomes a on going battle to adapt or be left behind like many piano retailers that have bit the dust. Iv'e noticed when that change is forseeable it takes a long time for the retail buyer to change. Dealers are still selling 20-25 year old crusty Samick and Young Changs for more $ than brand new better Chinese grands
More to say but much later!
Ori, gotta alot of respect for someone that has built up a sucessful operation like yours.
Boy, I hope you're wrong in your predictions

Is it not the case that Steinway's market in the US consists of just 3% of all pianos sold in the US?

Great Thread.

Ori, you put a great deal of thought into these posts. And, I agree with your analysis.

The Internet IS eroding the Steinway "mystique".

Okay does that mean the whole new Steinway market share is now 2.97%?

Interesting responses from Ori and everyone else.

Let me just ask some more questions though.

1. Isn't this just an issue of price? How are new Steinways comparing against sales of other high priced pianos? Obviously this will exclude Estonia. How did Bosie and Fazioli manage in the same time period?

2. If Pianobroker is correct in the assessment that Rebuilders take from New sales, has this in fact been the case that rebuilders are selling more Steinways? In effect offering less expensive versions to achieve the same satisfaction of sound?

3. Is this assessment (by Ori) based mostly on a New York demographic with a lot more European influence? I say that because I don't see Bluthners, Grotrians, Steingraebers in Los Angeles so much. From talking to dealers, I hear how difficult it is to sell expensive pianos non-Yamahas and non-Steinways.

4. We hear here about the troubled times in the Piano industry. Is the observation about Steinway results more of a general US Piano market shrinking rather than a single brand?

It would be interesting to see both Ori and all parties have at it with these questions.

Jazzwee,

For this debate, US sales, where New York Steinway is marketing, is the market we should look at.

Bluthner had record sales last year (at least better than anything they sold over the past few decades), both in the USA and all over the world they have problems meeting with the demand and have just started construction of a large addition to their factory.


Bosendorfer’s US sales have also exceeded expectations last year, and 2006 showed a significant increase in US sales.


Karen,
Perhaps Steinway may not seem to be a big player in the market in terms of units sold, but it is the largest player by far when we talk about instrument that are sold for $40,000 and up on the retail level, capturing much of this market.
As I said, it is hard to asses the real level of drop in Steinway sales to the private market since it is lumped together with a successful institutional sales program and an increase of the dealer network…but even only a 10% drop in sales to the private market means a great opportunity for increased US sales by other high end manufacturers.

It is a domino affect…the more other high end pianos are sold, the more aware the public would be that there are other options for fine pianos, and the openness among the public for other instruments will increase.

This isn’t about the demise of Steinway, but about the opportunity ahead, and a possible brighter future to the high end industry, when piano buyers, composers and pianisits are not always pre program to think that the only taste of ice cream they should enjoy is Chocolate ice cream.
The possibilities for different tastes and tonal characteristics are endless, and I do believe that the music world as a whole, and piano students, techers and composers particularly will greatly benefit from the opening possibilities, as well as the audience listening to performances…

Maybe if we could know the number of Steinway rebuilds that were sold in 1990 and the number of new Steinways sold in 1990 and then add those number together we could compare that final number to the total rebuilds sold in 2006 added together with the total new Steinways sold in 2006.....maybe total the number of Steinways sold is growing rather than shrinking. We probably can never know since private sellers for example on Craigslist cannot be quantified in any market survey.....at least from what I know.

Here's another investement idea everyone can throw rocks at: the American dollar is falling. Some people actually do invest in pianos. Assuming they want to protect themselves against the falling dollar, they may want to include a hard asset denominated in a currency other than the US dollar.

The reason I say this, is that the market for new Steinways (from what I have read and from what I have been told by three Steinway separate dealers) is households with total annual incomes in the range of $150,000 to $350,000. I would think it is this same segment of the populace which would be a candidate for a Steinway competitor. This group is an investment-savy group. If they have listened to investment advice in the past several years about hard asset investing and about global investing in general, the smart potential purchaser may have this as a consideration (asset protection) in the back of their mind. It did occur to me....had I known of a good piano I could be denominated in the Austrailian dollar, I would have considered that. ....

Ori,
Thanks for a great post. Fascinating!!

I worked for a Steinway dealer for 27 years. Customers for that product come in a myriad of shapes, sizes, and situations. One can sort them into two groups, the players and the prestige buyers.

My experience is that many if not most of the prestige groups would rarely consider a used instrument. Many if not most of the prestige group will not shop other than the new Steinway dealer. If they are exposed to Fazioli, Bosie, Bechstein or other top tier brands it only comes from seeing them at the Steinway dealer. Since most S&S dealers do not carry these "competitive" brands, this rarely happens.

The players may have less disposable income than the first group. They are more apt to shop around and seek performance bargains. As they play, they are more apt to be persuaded to try alternative brands and find them superior.

I can see, with the information age, that probable S&S prospects are being exposed to alternative top tier brands on sites like this.

Ive been to the Steinway factory twice. Steinway is not going out of business anytime soon. Maybe other top brands will gain a little more market share at the high end especialy if the non Steinways are hyped up enough. Maybe hype can be as effective as great marketing skills. Many of the other brands have a big advantage over Steinway because its cheaper to build things almost anywhere outside of New York. If Steinway had to rent or pay off their factory the pianos would have to cost as much as Bosendorfers or even Fazioli's at least. But if Steinway did go out of business then I believe my "investment" would really pay dividends, the shortage of Steinways would push resale into the Stradavari zone.

Sorry, have to Digg out this 4 years old thread.

I am actually on similar situation as Larry was 4 years ago on making decisions.

I am budgeting about 10K to 15K for a piano for my daughter, in Canada, the price range allows me to buy a Brand new Yamaha U3 Upright or a Rebuilt Steinway 6'2" 1926 Year model Grand (saw a couple on Craigslist).

So, back to the Larry's original question, in 10~20 years, if I will be reselling the piano for an upgrade, shouldn't the Steinway Grand hold better value than the Yamaha U3 Upright?

Be very careful of the "rebuilt" Steinway. At that price I doubt that it is very good. Would expect it to need lots of work to be in reasonably good shape. But if an independent tech approves, it should be a bargain and a good investment. But I'd be very surprised.

Probably, but you should buy based primarily on what plays best right now. I haven't played many $10k used Steinways that were in great mechanical/acoustic/cosmetic shape. There were a couple that were still solid practice instruments, but nothing to write home about. (old and well-used)

These pianos do have a value to stores, techs, and rebuilders as a "core" (sorry, Tony!) instrument to be rebuilt. I'm guessing it's worth half the amount you quoted to people like this, or you could easily invest $15-30k into its restoration (if needed, which I assume to be true at that price).

Fully restored Steinway A's can be found anywhere from $35-55k in the US, depending on the extent and quality of the work, the case finish, and local market.

To the poster who brought back this old thread-- have you considered finding a young, but used U3/U5 instead? Seems like a reliable way to hedge your bets...

It is not a modest feat for a private party to sell an expensive piano. Any way you cut it, we're talking about a potential buyer spending a lot of money in a private transaction where there is no real resource for a lay person to gauge market prices. Sure people spend this kind of money on used autos, but 100,000's if not millions of used cars are sold every year, with plenty of sources for tracking resale prices. Real estate is sold privately but usually accompanied by an impartial appraisal by a professional (required by the lender). Not so with high end pianos. Here, even the most informed buyers is mostly in the woods. I venture to say even seasoned dealers of pianos struggle with finding the "sweet spot" for pricing used pianos.

That said, a savvy buyer has great opportunities to find a bargain piano, provided they know what they are buying. All they need is an unbiased and knowledgeable technician to inspect the instrument as to it's mechanical condition and up coming needs.

Remember, many, many posters on here are piano dealers. They all have horses in the race. Dealers of used pianos are going to knock new pianos. Non-Steinway dealers are going to knock new Steinways. Restorers are going to knock unrestored pianos. Steinway dealers are going to knock other makes. You have to expect that.

There are great deals out there for private party buyers. Pianos are not so fungible. They are big, heavy specialized items with a limited market and tough to trade and move around. People have to get rid of pianos for a myriad of reasons. You can get a great deal. Just make sure the piano is inspected by an expert. I hired two separate technicians to look at the rebuilt Steinway O I purchased before pulling the trigger. I think I bought my piano $5,000-$10,000 below market at the time. I am sure you can do very well also, especially if you limit your search to Steinways.

Thanks for all the replies.

What do you think a Steinway 1980 Model M worth if it's in good condition (not restored).

Thanks,

I'm sorry, but we can't really say without inspecting the instrument in-person. How the instrument was kept, used, and maintained matters quite a lot. You will want the technician who inspects it to pay particularly close attention to the action if it is original, as 1980 would still have the oft-mentioned teflon bushings (if I remember my history correctly).

Pianos age differently in different environments. Here in the upper midwestern US, they age prematurely without some extra humidity control effort on the part of the owners.

Have you looked at the classifieds here, or pianomart, or craigslist to find similarly listed instruments? That may give you an idea as to pricing-- 30 to 40 year old model M's aren't terribly difficult to find in my experience.

Week after week you see the same Steinways for sale. The prices being asked for pianos in decent (relatively speaking) to wonderful playing shape are not a level where buyers are pulling the trigger. Just check the "completed sales" on ebay. Peruse Craiglist and see the same ads week after week, Yamahas C7's, Steinway B's, O's, all of them. No Sale. Supply and demand dictates a buyers market right now and deals will be had, but just know what you are getting into.