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Joined: May 2003
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The GOP is touting the fact that the economy is growing at a 4-5% annual rate and has been since the beginning of the year.

It is true the numbers show this.

However, the numbers are based on the growth in the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) which is the value of all goods and services produced in the economy. The important word here is value.

The economic numbers also show that wholesale inflation is rising at an annual rate of over 8% and consumer inflation is rising at an annual rate of 6%. This means that much of the increase in the value of the GDP is simply inflation, since the inflationary rise in costs increases the value of the goods and services prduced by the economy.

It makes one wonder just how successful Mr. Bush's economic policies are when the growth rate in the economy is below what inflation is doing to the statistics that determine that growth rate.


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The important word is not VALUE it is REAL.

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Rebasing changes the reference year (or base year) for the real (chained dollar and quantity index) estimates and price indexes and expresses GDP and other NIPA aggregates in terms of the prices of one year. The effect of rebasing is to produce chained-dollar estimates that are closer to additive for periods near the new base year. It is important to note that percentage changes based upon chain-type indexes are not affected by rebasing.

For the 2003 comprehensive revision, real estimates will be rebased from chained (1996) dollars to chained (2000) dollars. Generally, the year selected as the reference year is the latest year that will not be revised until the next comprehensive revision.





"How, Monsieur, you care not for music? You do not play the clavecin? I am sorry for you! You are indeed condemming yourself to a dull old age!" - Fouquet
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I haven't been paying attention, but if the inflation rate is suddenly approaching 8%, and the real growth rate 4%, then the Bush economic policies HAVE been paying off. Taxcuts --> growth; deficit --> inflation.

And, DON'T pay down the principal on your mortgage any faster than you have to. (Question any economist: "What does inflation do?" and you get the rote answer: "It takes from lenders and gives to borrowers.")


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Inflation is not rising at 8%.

Take away the medical sector (where salaries are rising quickly), and the numbers are almost flat.


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Originally posted by Jolly:
Inflation is not rising at 8%.

Take away the medical sector (where salaries are rising quickly), and the numbers are almost flat.
As flat as petroleum prices, which, of course, have no impact in the general economy. These, of course, will be taken care of by the secret deal between Saudi Arabia and Mr. Bush when he informed the Saudi Ambassador (before he informed his own Secretary of state) that he had decided to invade and occupy Iraq. The Saudi's promised that in return for sending our military into harm's way, they would make sure gasoline prices were down in the months leading to the 2004 election.

Just for your info, Jolly....

According to the government, consumer prices rose 4.4% from January through April. If that is extrapolated out with a straight line projection, it is a 13.2% annual rate.

Wholesale prices rose .7% in April or an annual rate of 8.4%, which is where I got the 8% figure. (I purposely did not use the 13.2% CPIU figure)


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One month does not a year make.

90 days, doth not make a trend.

Oh, and gas prices? Two observations...1)They dropped a nickel a gallon this week down here, and 2)our state revenues are way up.

Although, I do think gas prices will stabilize by the fall, somewhere in the neighborhood of a buck-fifty, or so. Of course, if China's economy overheats, and gas prices freefall, you'll gripe about that, too.

For years, Algore wanted higher gas prices as a way to force Americans to conserve, and to develop alternative energy technologies.

Well, he got his wish. Why aren't the liberals dancing in the aisles?


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It's funny That with this runaway inflation the Fed has not seen fit to raise inerest rates at all. Perhaps they know a little more about inflation that the author of this overheated rhetoric.


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Originally posted by JBryan:
It's funny That with this runaway inflation the Fed has not seen fit to raise inerest rates at all. Perhaps they know a little more about inflation that the author of this overheated rhetoric.
Actually, JBryan, if you have been following the Fed, you would know that they have hinted (which is all they ever do) that they will be raising rates and the rates are expected to go up in June. Long term rates like mortgages are already increasing because of it and the bond market is falling because of the expectation.

We'll see if they do; but the inflationary pressures on the economy have not gone unnoticed and/or ignored by the Fed.


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Inflation??? When the auto companies stop advertising 0% financing on new cars is when you can expect inflation to start going up. Until then- enjoy it while lasts. The big 3 auto barometer is still showing clear skies.


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The Fed is hinting they will raise interest rates? that's a new one on me. The Fed does everything in is power to not hint at anything. Many try to read chicken entrails or whatever to divine what they may have in mind for the future but "hints" are not something you will get from the Fed. We will see what happens in June but, since interest rates are already at historic lows, I would not be surprised if they went up a quarter or half percent simply because the economy is heating up.


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Like politics, John doesn't know anything about economics, either.


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