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#842653 - 05/21/04 03:52 PM Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
John Andrew Offline
3000 Post Club Member

Registered: 05/24/03
Posts: 3041
Loc: Southern California
Mr Bush's political operatives opted some time ago for a very late GOP convention in New York. New York was chosen because of 9/11. The convention is to be held the last days of August/first days of September. The idea was to get it as close to 9/11 as possible, take the jump in the polls Mr. Bush was thought to get from the convention and 9/11 and sprint to the November election. Plus, it was assumed that Mr. Kerry would need to spend general election money between the Democratic Convention in July and the GOP Convention in Late August/early September.

It is now clear that holding the GOP Convention in New York is likely a mistake, because the GOP is already being hammered that doing so politicizes 9/11. Further, the relase of Michael Moore's new film in early July and the subsequent release of the 9/11 Commission report set to be just a couple of weeks before the GOP Convention and the focus Mr. Bush's actions will get from that will tarnish any image he has of 9/11 -- and the harping will continue about his politicizing 9/11 if he even attempts to use it as part of his campaign. (Keep in mind how the victim's families angrily denounced Mr. Giuliani the other day. He was seen as more of a hero than Mr. Bush and if he can be denounced angrily and openly, Mr. Bush is in for trouble.)

And today comes news that Mr. Kerry may not play along with Mr. Bush's timetable. Under the campaign fincance laws, as soon as Mr. Kerry accepts the nomination, he can no longer spend the money he raised earlier but is subject to the campaign limitations. Thus, if the Democrats hold their convention, but Mr. Kerry is not nominated or does not accept the nomination at the convention, Mr. Kerry can continue to spend the pre-nomination money, and keep the limited money focused on the campaign after the GOP nomination.

Shrewd move if he does this. Very shrewd. And then the timing of his formal acceptance could become very interesting. Suppose he accepts the day after Mr. Bush's big speech in New York. Suddenly, Mr. Bush does not have several days of focus on his triumphant nomination, but Mr. Kerry's acceptance becomes part of the story.

Mr. Kerry is showing himself as a campaigner who can take risks and push the envelope. He is definitely not the same type of candidate Al Gore was.

Fascinating.
_________________________
You can be disappointed, but you cannot walk away. This fight has just begun. Senator John Edwards

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#842654 - 05/21/04 05:14 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
Cindysphinx Offline


Registered: 02/14/03
Posts: 6416
Loc: Washington D.C. Metro
 Quote:
Mr. Kerry is showing himself as a campaigner who can take risks and push the envelope. He is definitely not the same type of candidate Al Gore was.
Well, you know I'm right there with ya, right John? ;\)

I don't know that Kerry is all that innovative. I mean, what risks has he taken, really? There was a feeling that he would name his VP quickly and break with tradition. Nope, not gonna happen. Looks like he's not going to land McCain for the ticket, either.

And today's Washington Post reports that Kerry is doing fine with fundraising and has plenty to do what he needs to do between now and the convention. So there's no reason to take the risk of wandering away from the convention having looked a bit weird by not accepting the convention and *scaring* people.

Now, is it bad not to be innovative in one's campaigning? No, not to me. What Kerry is doing is working just fine. He is even with Bush or leading slightly. To quote our current president, I say "Stay the course." \:\) Kerry should get innovative if he starts losing ground. It is Bush who has the need to be innovative, which is why we're seeing him abandon the Rose Garden strategy and do so much early advertising.

You're right that Kerry is no Al Gore, though. Thank goodness. I can actually *listen* to Kerry. Listening to Al Gore was like listening to chalk on a blackboard! Oh, and Kerry is smarter than Al Gore, too!

Cindy -- who felt badly for Al Gore when he did that sad skit on Saturday Night Live where he was refusing to leave the Oval Office set of "The West Wing"
_________________________
Vote For Cindy!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post...QvjrL_blog.html

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#842655 - 05/21/04 06:29 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
MLT Offline
Full Member

Registered: 10/10/03
Posts: 356
John,

I hope you enjoy the new film by Michael Moore but it will have no more bearing on this election than Lord of the Rings does. Actually, Lord of the Rings is better fiction.

Michael Moore speaks to the Bush haters the same way Limbaugh spoke to the Clinton Haters. To the rest of the general public they are both fat windbags with more hot air and propaganda than common sense.

Again, enjoy the film, but know its really more along the lines of a partisan propaganda film than anything that will change events during an election.

Kirk

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#842656 - 05/21/04 10:43 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
John Andrew Offline
3000 Post Club Member

Registered: 05/24/03
Posts: 3041
Loc: Southern California
Actually, Kirk, the film has been screened to objective focus groups in several of the pivotal midwest states, the purpose being to see what impact it had on their voting intentions this Fall. In each case, after the film, more than 75% of the audience had decided to vote against Mr. Bush.

I doubt any movie by itself would change an election; but given all of the doubts about Mr. Bush, the anger growing against his policies and all of the questions about his motives and how he led us to war, a movie that shows how he cynically used 9/11 to further a Neocon agenda can have an impact, especially on independents who feel no political loyalty to one party or another.

Of course, by now you have undoubtedly heard that the film received a 20 minutes standing ovation at Cannes -- something that has never been heard of before. If it has even a portion of the impact among voters who see it that it has had at Cannes, it will impact the election.

I want to see it if only for the portion that deals with the actual destruction of the towers. Apparently, the screen goes dark -- totally black -- for 90 seconds and all one hears is the actual sounds of the attacks. I cannot imagine sitting through that without being tremendously moved.
_________________________
You can be disappointed, but you cannot walk away. This fight has just begun. Senator John Edwards

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#842657 - 05/21/04 10:57 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
Jolly Offline
Yikes! 10000 Post Club Member

Registered: 06/20/01
Posts: 14051
Loc: Louisiana
Aye, if Europe be with us, than who can stand against us?

I think the honorable MLT is correct in his statements.
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www.coffee-room.com

Over 1,000,000 posts where pianists discuss everything. And nothing.

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#842658 - 05/21/04 10:59 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
John Andrew Offline
3000 Post Club Member

Registered: 05/24/03
Posts: 3041
Loc: Southern California
 Quote:
Originally posted by Jolly:
Aye, if Europe be with us, than who can stand against us?
[/b]
Well, we know who can stand against us when we reject our own allies -- the Iraqi people.
_________________________
You can be disappointed, but you cannot walk away. This fight has just begun. Senator John Edwards

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#842659 - 05/21/04 11:12 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
Tom--K Offline
5000 Post Club Member

Registered: 12/27/03
Posts: 5934
 Quote:
Originally posted by John Andrew:
I cannot imagine sitting through that without being tremendously moved. [/b]
With a bowel movement, that is. \:D

JA, I can't believe you believe this film will fare any differently than MM's previous movies...nobody saw them. Even you have to see your comments about this movie having an effect on the election as grasping at straws, with all due respect.

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#842660 - 05/21/04 11:13 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
Jolly Offline
Yikes! 10000 Post Club Member

Registered: 06/20/01
Posts: 14051
Loc: Louisiana
J.A.,

TomK is correct, the lazer beam becomes boring, and the night is made for the arms of Morpheus.

Goodnight, and may you sleep pleasant dreams of a Bush victory in November.
_________________________
www.coffee-room.com

Over 1,000,000 posts where pianists discuss everything. And nothing.

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#842661 - 05/21/04 11:27 PM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
apple* Offline


Registered: 01/01/03
Posts: 19862
Loc: Kansas
JA - in a liberal sort of way I really love you.. but the opening post was very stabby.
_________________________
accompanist/organist.. a non-MTNA teacher to a few

love and peace, ├Ľun (apple in Estonian)

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#842662 - 05/22/04 12:36 AM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
Tom--K Offline
5000 Post Club Member

Registered: 12/27/03
Posts: 5934
 Quote:
Posted by JA: Shrewd move if he does this. Very shrewd. And then the timing of his formal acceptance could become very interesting. Suppose he accepts the day after Mr. Bush's big speech in New York. Suddenly, Mr. Bush does not have several days of focus on his triumphant nomination, but Mr. Kerry's acceptance becomes part of the story.
[/b]
I'm no fan of Kerry's, but even I would pity him for the poor sportsmanship jibes he would garnish if he pulled an idiotic move like that.

Sorry JA, if I were Rove I would have Kerry walking around with his underware on his head if he pulled a stunt like that.

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#842663 - 05/22/04 12:59 AM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
Larry Offline
9000 Post Club Member

Registered: 05/25/01
Posts: 9217
Loc: Deep in Cherokee Country
One thing John and a few others seem to forget - it is possible that Kerry won't *get* the nomination. He probably will, but I'm certain there are plenty in the Democrat party who would love to figure out a way to dump him at the convention.

Also, you can't just up and change those things. Reservations would have to be broken, contracts for services cancelled - the DNC would be sued from every direction they turned if they tried to switch convention dates.
_________________________
Life isn't measured by the breaths you take. Life is measured by the things that left you breathless

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#842664 - 05/22/04 03:51 AM Re: Interesting Kerry Strategy as Counterpoint to Mr. Bush's Strategy
gryphon Offline
Yikes! 10000 Post Club Member

Registered: 08/09/01
Posts: 11678
Loc: Okemos, MI
 Quote:
Originally posted by John Andrew:
the film has been screened to objective focus groups [/b]
Cite.
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"If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to."
MSU - the university of Michigan!
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